Can Raisi’s Death Pave the Way for Mojtaba Khamenei’s Leadership?

The death of Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash has reignited discussions surrounding Mojtaba Khamenei's potential rise to leadership. 

Meanwhile, the Assembly of Experts held relatively subdued elections, resulting in Mohammad Ali Movahedi Kermani's election as its chief, despite his ailing health.

Mohammedreza Modaresi Yazdi, a member of the Jurisprudence Council of the Guardian Council, noted that 37 members of the new Assembly are newcomers, including young clerics whose ideologies were shaped during Ali Khamenei's tenure, indicating potential alignment with Mojtaba Khamenei's vision.

Notable figures like Mustafa Pourmohammadi and Mahmoud Alavi, known for their independent efficacy, have been disqualified. 

While circumstances seem poised for Mojtaba Khamenei's ascendancy, the timing of Ali Khamenei's death remains a pivotal factor, reminiscent of the disruptive aftermath following Ruhullah Khomeini's death.

Ahmad Montazeri highlighted how Ayatollah Khomeini's untimely death thwarted Ahmad Khomeini's leadership aspirations. 

Recent revelations, including Vahid Haqqanian's account of Ebrahim Raisi's inquiry about his political future and leadership prospects, add layers to the discourse. 

This anecdote, shared on the X channel by media activist Hatef Salehi, underscores the underlying ambitions and strategic considerations within the political elite.

Moreover, Mahdi Nasiri's conflicting statements regarding Khamenei's stance on Mojtaba's leadership and the purported dismissal of IRGC's Hossein Tayeb following a meeting to strategize Mojtaba Khamenei's succession further complicate Mojtaba's path to leadership.

Mojtaba Khamenei's involvement in Iran's affairs dates back to the 1990s, escalating notably during the early 2000s when his influence became more publicly recognized. 

In the political arena, tensions brewed between Khamenei and figures like Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, evident during Rafsanjani's second term presidency in the 90s, and later, amid conflicts with the government of Mohammed Khatami.

During this era, Hossein Tayeb, who later rose to become head of intelligence in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, was implicated alongside Khamenei in various incidents, including the arrest of Abbas Yazdan Panah Yazdi, the deputy minister of intelligence, and the subsequent recording of a confession implicating Mehdi Hashemi, the son of Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani.

The political landscape further stirred a few months before the 2005 presidential elections when concerns regarding Mojtaba Khamenei's interference surfaced. 

Ali Akbar Nateq Nouri, as head of inspection at the office of the leader of the Islamic Republic, raised apprehensions about Khamenei's involvement with Khamenei himself, prompting a response that downplayed the concerns.

Leading up to the 2005 elections, Mojtaba Khamenei's presence in political circles was notable, particularly within Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf's headquarters. 

However, the tide shifted towards Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's favor, a situation Mahdi Karroubi highlighted in a public letter, implicating Khamenei's involvement in favoring Ahmadinejad.

Karroubi's letter resonated further during the 2009 elections when Mojtaba Khamenei's name was publicly invoked, with protesters expressing discontent towards his potential leadership.

In a bid to solidify his future leadership prospects, Mojtaba Khamenei commenced foreign jurisprudence studies in Qom. 

However, this move wasn't without controversy, as objections were raised by religious authorities regarding his engagement in classrooms.

Rumors swirled regarding Mojtaba Khamenei's pursuit of Ejtihad, with efforts reportedly made to seek approval from religious authorities. 

However, obtaining such certification proved elusive, with key figures like Ayatollah Vahid Khorasani declining to issue the Ejtihad certificate, which Mojtaba needs for the top job.

The use of the title "Ayatollah" also sparked political debate, underscoring the significance of clerical titles in Iran's political landscape.

Amidst ongoing speculation, figures like Mohammed Sarafaraz shed light on Mojtaba Khamenei's perceived involvement in significant national matters, further fueling discussions about his potential leadership role.

The nomination of Ebrahim Raisi in the 2017 presidential election reignited discussions about Mojtaba Khamenei's leadership aspirations, signaling that his influence and role in Iran's political future continue to be subjects of intense scrutiny and debate.

In a 2018 interview, Mohammad Hossein Khoshvaqt, whose sister is married to Mustafa Khamenei, remarked that Mojtaba bears the closest resemblance to his father, Ali Khamenei, not only in appearance but also in personal and social traits.

Addressing speculations about Mojtaba Khamenei's potential leadership, Khoshvaqt asserted that the current leader of the Islamic Republic is "unquestionably the most suitable choice for future leadership," refraining from expressing any definitive opinion on Mojtaba's candidacy.

Despite such disclaimers, in 2022, Mirhossein Mousavi sounded alarms about the risks of hereditary succession in Iran, coinciding with the publication of a photo from Mojtaba's religious studies.

Amidst these developments, some interpreted the removal of Hossein Tayeb from his position at the Intelligence Organization as a setback for Mojtaba's succession plans. 

This concern persisted, with figures like Ali Motahari cautioning against the notion of governmental inheritance, particularly during Muharram.

Opponents of Mojtaba's potential leadership highlight the ramifications of familial succession within the Islamic Republic, deterring them from endorsing such a proposition. 

Conversely, supporters argue that Iran has evolved beyond traditional paradigms, citing the 2021 elections as evidence.

Taghi Azad Armaki, a sociology professor at Tehran University, emphasized the influential role of individuals within the leader's office, including Mojtaba's father-in-law, Gholam-Ali Haddad Adel. 

Armaki contends that Haddad Adel's actions during the presidential elections would discredit the office of the president without propelling him or Mojtaba into leadership roles.

Some observers attribute the controversy surrounding Mojtaba's potential succession as the source of internal conflicts within the government.

The circulation of Mojtaba Khamenei's images could be interpreted as symbolic of these internal tensions, reflecting attempts to undermine his perceived leadership aspirations.

In 2019, leaflets bearing the slogan "Labayk ya Mojtabi," in support of Mojtaba's leadership, appeared across Tehran, leading to the reported arrest of those responsible, yet no conclusive information regarding the producers emerged.

In March of the following year, Mahmoud Mohammadi Iraqi, a member of the Assembly of Experts, disclosed that Ali Khamenei had opposed the consideration of his children for future leadership positions. 

Khamenei cited concerns about casting doubt on the hereditary nature of leadership, insisting that individuals close to him, particularly his children, refrain from seeking positions of authority.

In recent months, the rivalry between Mojtaba Khamenei and Raisi escalated following the arrest of two fundamentalist journalists and the disclosure attributed to Vahid Haqqanian.

During the 2021 presidential election, Vahid Haqqanian, the deputy for special affairs at the leader's office, wrote a note that underscored the growing schism within the fundamentalist camp. 

Unusually, this note was disseminated not by fundamentalist or security-affiliated media but by independent outlets like ISNA.

In his note, Haqqanian labeled the candidacies of Raisi, Qazizadeh Hashemi, and Hemati as "divine intervention" and opined that had these three candidates withdrawn alongside others, it would have posed a significant challenge to the Islamic Republic's sanctity.

The publication of Haqqanian's note drew criticism from media outlets aligned with government institutions. 

These developments, including Haqqanian's note and Tasnim's subsequent critique, offered rare glimpses into the underlying tensions between Raisi and Mojtaba Khamenei, shedding light on their deepening rivalry.